Small Business Loan Demand and Tariff Uncertainty

Upward Revision of Q2 GDP: The US economy saw a stronger rebound in the second quarter than initially estimated. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure for April through June to an annual rate of 3.3%, up from the previous estimate of 3.0%. The growth was primarily driven by a sharp drop in imports and an increase in consumer spending. This follows a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year.
Consumer Confidence Falls: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped slightly in August, marking a 1.3-point decrease from July. Consumers’ assessments of both current business and labor market conditions, as well as their short-term outlook, worsened. Concerns about higher prices and inflation, with tariffs being a notable contributing factor, were cited by consumers in their responses.
Tariffs and Trade Policy: The ongoing US trade policy and the imposition of tariffs continue to be a dominant theme in economic news. The recent 50% tariff on Indian goods, in particular, has created uncertainty and is weighing on market sentiment. The unpredictability of these policies has left businesses unsettled and cautious about investments and hiring.

Small Business Lending: The Kansas City Federal Reserve reported an increase in demand for small business loans for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. However, the report also noted that fewer loan applications were approved, indicating tightening credit standards.
SBA Reforms: The Small Business Administration (SBA) has reinstated fees for its 7(a) loan program, which were previously waived. The SBA administrator also announced the relocation of several regional offices to new locations aimed at better serving the small business community.
Corporate Transparency Act: Enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act’s beneficial ownership reporting requirement has been suspended, with the US Treasury Department making an announcement to that effect. This provides a reprieve for many US citizens and domestic reporting companies.
AI Adoption by Small Businesses: A recent survey by Goldman Sachs found that 68% of small businesses are now using artificial intelligence (AI), a significant jump from the previous year. The survey indicates that business owners are using AI to enhance their workforce rather than replace jobs.

Chris Lehnes Factoring Specialist