China Exports to U.S. Plunge, an Impact From Trump Tariffs
In a development that underscores the shifting dynamics of global trade, China’s exports to the United States have plunged sharply in recent months, a clear sign of the lingering impact from the tariff policies first enacted under Trump.
According to the latest trade data released by China’s General Administration of Customs, Chinese exports to the U.S. fell by over 18% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025. This marks one of the steepest declines in bilateral trade in recent memory and reinforces the long-term effects of the tariff war initiated during the Trump administration, many of which remain in place despite subsequent leadership changes in Washington.
The Lasting Legacy of Trump-Era Tariffs
The Trump administration, beginning in 2018, imposed a series of escalating tariffs on Chinese goods, citing concerns over intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and the growing U.S. trade deficit. In response, China retaliated with its own tariffs on American products, sparking a protracted trade war that disrupted global supply chains and roiled financial markets.
While the two countries signed a “Phase One” agreement in early 2020 to ease tensions, much of the tariff framework has persisted. Over $300 billion in Chinese goods remain subject to elevated U.S. tariffs, creating long-term cost pressures for importers and shifting trade patterns.
“Even though the most aggressive rhetoric has died down, the structural barriers are still very much in place,” says Dr. Karen Lin, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “These tariffs are now embedded into the operating assumptions of many multinational firms.”
Supply Chains Are Moving—But Not Always to America
The decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. is not solely a matter of reduced demand. Many U.S. companies have shifted their sourcing strategies, looking to diversify away from China due to both the tariffs and broader geopolitical risks. Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and India have emerged as alternative manufacturing hubs, absorbing business that once flowed almost exclusively through Chinese factories.
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a corresponding uptick in imports from Southeast Asia and Latin America. For example, imports from Vietnam have surged by over 30% since 2021, while Mexico has become the U.S.’s top trading partner in goods for the first time in decades.
“Supply chains are sticky, but they are not immovable,” notes James Weston, head of global trade strategy at FreightScope Analytics. “The Trump tariffs were the wake-up call. The pandemic and the U.S.–China tech decoupling accelerated the pivot.”
Implications for Chinese Manufacturers
The plunge in exports to the U.S. is placing added strain on Chinese manufacturers, many of whom are already grappling with slowing domestic demand and rising labor costs. While China continues to maintain strong trade ties with other regions—including the European Union, ASEAN countries, and Africa—the U.S. market was historically among its most lucrative.
To mitigate the impact, some Chinese companies have relocated production offshore, either directly or via subsidiaries in tariff-exempt countries. Others are investing in higher-value goods and services to move up the global value chain. Still, the short-term disruptions are palpable.
“Chinese exporters are under pressure from multiple directions,” says Li Zhang, a trade consultant based in Shenzhen. “The U.S. tariffs, while not new, have fundamentally altered expectations and forced a strategic reset.”
A Shift in the Global Trade Order
The plunge in exports also reflects a broader recalibration of the U.S.–China economic relationship. What began as a tariff skirmish has evolved into a multifaceted rivalry encompassing technology, investment restrictions, and national security concerns. Washington’s efforts to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors and Beijing’s crackdown on foreign businesses have only deepened the divide.
As both countries double down on self-sufficiency—exemplified by China’s “dual circulation” strategy and America’s push for domestic industrial policy—their trade interdependence appears to be waning. This decoupling, though partial, is reshaping global supply chains in ways that will be felt for years.
Looking Ahead
While the Biden administration has maintained most of the Trump-era tariffs, a formal policy review is ongoing. Business groups and economists have urged a reassessment, arguing that the tariffs hurt U.S. consumers and importers more than their intended targets. However, with bipartisan support for a tough-on-China stance, any rollback is likely to be incremental, if at all.
For now, the data tells a clear story: the Trump tariffs have not only endured but fundamentally altered the contours of global trade. The drop in China’s exports to the U.S. is not an isolated incident—it is a bellwether of a new, more fragmented era in global commerce.
